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Lebanon on the Brink of New Escalation: Renewed Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah
Developments continue in the Lebanese arena despite the conclusion of the last round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. As Israeli forces continue their strikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is reconstructing its military strength, raising questions about the future of the conflict and whether the region is on the verge of a new escalation.
In recent weeks, Israel has intensified its military operations targeting Hezbollah elements and facilities. The Israeli military announced that it targeted "a Hezbollah member involved in restoring the party's infrastructure." These attacks are among the most severe since the ceasefire agreement, reflecting an interesting Israeli escalation, especially with statements from Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warning that "Lebanese infrastructure will pay a heavy price if Hezbollah continues its movements."
In an interview with Sky News Arabia, international relations researcher Ali Shakir points out that Hezbollah is adopting two main strategies in this crisis. The first pertains to changes in the military equation, particularly the evolution of Israeli capabilities in military and intelligence technology that enhance the precision of targeting Hezbollah leaders. The second relates to the internal political dimension, where the party aims to give the Lebanese political authority and the international community an opportunity to take a stance regarding Israeli aggressions, in line with agreements preceding Resolution 1701 and the ceasefire.
Shakir explains that there is an unspoken agreement stipulating that the Lebanese political authority should confront diplomacy, in exchange for Hezbollah's commitment to de-escalation. However, he warns that continued Israeli escalation could lead to the collapse of this understanding, potentially compelling the party to respond militarily.
Amid ongoing Israeli bombardment and security tensions, Lebanon faces severe economic challenges, particularly regarding reconstruction efforts. After the 2006 war, losses were estimated at around $7.6 billion, with most costs borne by Arab countries. Now, the World Bank estimates that any new escalation could cost Lebanon about $11 billion more, raising questions about the willingness of any international or regional party to support reconstruction efforts in the event of a new war.
According to Shakir, the current phase represents a "test" of the capability of Lebanese political parties and the international community to deter Israel. However, he warns that if the situation continues without effective intervention, it may force Hezbollah to respond militarily, potentially leading the region into a comprehensive confrontation.
He also notes that Israeli aggressions have not been limited to air violations and bombardments; they have extended to over a thousand Israelis entering Lebanese border areas under the pretext of religious visits, posing an additional challenge to the Lebanese state.
In this context, it appears that Hezbollah is carefully balancing between the option of temporary de-escalation and escalation if Israeli attacks persist. As Israel continues its military operations, it believes that regional and international conditions allow it to carry out preemptive strikes without significant repercussions. The pressing question remains: Will we soon witness a new military escalation, or do political understandings still have the capacity to regulate the pace of confrontation?
