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Yes, Russia Has Invaded Ukraine, But What Next?
Although the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still in the beginning, the question that comes to mind is what after Ukraine? It is very difficult to predict what next step Putin intends to take. But what is clear so far is that Putin knows very well what he is doing.
Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Putin began to mobilise tens of thousands of Russian troops on Ukrainian border to exert pressure on the West and obtain the concessions required from it. This was followed by Moscow's recognition of Lugansk and Donetsk as independent states.
A few days later, Putin ordered an assault on Ukraine, which continues at the time of writing this article. It is clear that Putin is proceeding systematically with his offensive plan, which does not seem to stop in Ukraine but has just started with it.
The balance of power in the Russian-Ukrainian Western conflict is in favour of Russia, not in favour of the West and Ukraine. According to the "Global Firepower" website, the Russian army ranks second in the world in terms of equipment, while the Ukrainian army ranks 22nd.
Thus, Russia's options in this dispute are much more than those of the West. Russia can use military force against Ukraine, an ally of the West, while the West cannot enter into an open military confrontation with Russia.
Indeed, the West represented by NATO is powerful than Russia, but the outcomes of a military clash with Russia will be dire because of the caveats of the use of nuclear weapons.
The land and the air in this battle are on the side of Russia. Therefore, the West has no choice but to impose more economic, banking, commercial and investment sanctions against the Russian tsar and his entourage.
If Putin wins in Ukraine, and it is most likely that he will win, then Tsar’s ambitions for expansion and growth will revive, and he will ask the West again and again to implement his demands in full. Otherwise, escalation is the alternative, which means engaging the old continent in another destructive war that no one wants, and everyone will lose in it, including Russia itself.
Perhaps, we can say that the Ukraine that the West wants is over, at least for the foreseeable future. If the West does not listen to the Russian demands and warnings, then the Kremlin tsar will continue his adventures that may impact Europe and the whole world and in this case the price will be much higher than we can imagine.
For Putin, Ukraine is only the beginning. As for the end, for the tsar, or as some call him the new Stalin, is to restore what can be restored from the glories of the former Soviet Union, so that Russia returns as one of the poles of the world order.
The very difficult question is will Putin succeed in eliminating the unipolar system and restoring the bipolar or multipolar system so that Russia will be one of its poles? perhaps, the features of the intricate answer to this crucial question will be revealed, within the next few months.
BY: Jwan Dibo
