Arms Race 2022

The shockwaves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to ripple through the geopolitics of the moment. Over one month into operations all eyes are rightfully focused on events on the ground in Ukraine itself; the defence of Kiev, the destruction of Mariupol, the exodus of over 3.5 million refugees in a matter of weeks. Far beyond the now violated borders of Ukraine the conflict manifests in economies that are suddenly facing the prospect of having to find new sources of energy or are seeing inflation rip through their ability to subsidies bread for their populations.

Another predictable outcome is the return of increasing defence budgets. Almost immediately after Russian tanks had crossed into Ukraine German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a plan to beef up the German military and essentially revolutionize the country’s defence policy. He pledged €100 billion ($112.7 billion) of the 2022 budget for the armed forces and repeating his promise to reach the 2% of gross domestic product spending on defense in line with NATO demands.

Germany had all of a sudden become the third largest global military spender. This week the US, seen in Russia’s eyes as a waning superpower, showed that it too would be stepping up its defence spending. President Biden unveiled a massive $813.3 billion defense and national security spending plan as part of his fiscal 2023 budget request. Other NATO countries will surely follow Germany and America’s path.

NATO is moving more troops to the Ukrainian border as Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian targets nearby continue. Arms from NATO countries to Ukraine continue to cross the border with Russia warning that they could be targeted. Tensions continue to escalate.

The emerging arms race will add another dimension to these tensions. Who will buy what from where and what will they do with it? The conflict to date inside Ukraine has shown how drones have developed from reconnaissance tools to assassination tools to essential elements of modern combat. Their ability to loiter and be used effectively against armour has pegged back Russian forces from making a lightening run into Kiev. Yet other more traditional weapons continue to shape the conflict. Russian artillery, for example, has devastated Ukrainian cities that continue to resist. The “Grozny playbook” or attempting either a swift capture or a grinding destruction seems well at play.

The future of urban conflict will be focusing the minds of defence leadership. Can modern conflict be fought in a manner that better protects civilians and their infrastructure. Urban battles have a long history in the last hundred years from Stalingrad to Aleppo, yet more people are living in cities than at any point in human history forcing the question as to whether the rules and norms of warfare are fit for purpose to deal with this challenge.

In Ukraine humanitarian corridors, a last resort in most conflicts, have become the immediate go to tool for evacuating civilians. Yet these are fragile and complex mechanisms that rely on more static frontlines and confidence between the parties that civilians won’t be caught in the open. The death toll from the conflict is increasing exponentially with the UN unable to verify deaths quick enough to do justice to those hidden underneath the blasted rubble of cities and towns that had to be destroyed in order to be won. Thankfully the Soviet infrastructure and Cold War planners blessed Ukraine with a good supply of bomb shelters and more secure basements, without which the death toll would be far, far higher.

More drones and more anti-tank weapons would be on the shopping list for many states watching how Ukraine has managed to slow and then halt the Russian advance. Also, sufficient weapons to prevent urban areas becoming encircled, the death knell when facing an enemy whose willingness to use wide area weaponry is so apparent. Airpower, such a defining characteristic of the wars of America in the Middle East, is conspicuous by its absence. The fact that the Ukrainian air force has managed to keep itself viable and the proliferation of surface to air missiles has seen Russia rely on more standoff weaponry and not dominate the sky. Questions as to hypersonic weaponry, missile defence and of course the evolution of the nuclear deterrent will complete the first round of thinking as to this new Cold War. However, we’re only one month in and the direction of events remains far for clear as countries open their wallets for a splurge on defence spending.