Playing Chicken in Northeast Syria
September 9, 2020, 7:22 am

James Denseiow

During the Cold War as the two Superpowers navigated geopolitical tensions, some of the nearest misses came in the form of accidents that could have triggered a third world war or some form of nuclear apocalypse. Planes carrying deadly missiles would crash land, radar systems would malfunction and warn of pre-emptive strikes, nuclear submarines would play cat and mouse games in ocean trenches.

Whilst these days are long gone and the Cold War is over, the relationship between Russia and the USA remains strained and nowhere is this more obviously manifested than in northeast Syria. Last week several US troops were injured in a collision with a Russian military vehicle in northeast Syria, with at least four troops suffering mild concussion-like injuries. Thanks to social media unlike Cold War incidents this collision, something reminiscent of a Mad Max scene, was quickly seen and shared around the world.

Armoured US and Russian vehicles are now playing a bizarre game of chicken along the desert roads of northeast Syria with hugely dangerous and unpredictable consequences. When the two countries initially found themselves on opposite sides of Syria’s fast changing frontlines, conduct was characterised as being professional and respectful. That’s clearly no longer the case. Chief Pentagon Spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman explained later in the week that the US “have advised the Russians that their behaviour was dangerous and unacceptable. We expect a return to routine and professional deconfliction in Syria and reserve the right to defend our forces vigorously whenever their safety is put at risk.”

Within such diplomatic language is the clear ‘right to defend our forces’ which could of course mean that events could quite easily spiral out of control. What would have happened, for example, if the US vehicle had been flipped and could no longer leave the area, would the rest of the convoy have fired on Russian forces?

There is no better evidence to the unpredictability and unsustainability of the situation in this corner of Syria than this dangerous dance of armoured vehicles. The Russians blamed the US for the incident saying that it was their vehicles who were being prevented in carrying out what had been an agreed patrol.

Moscow has a deeper and more historic role in Syria than Washington. Whilst the US arrived to help fight ISIS it has kept a force of around 500 soldiers, despite President Trump promising a full withdrawal, to protect oil infrastructure and coordinate with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Moscow is interested in Regime preservation and consolidating Syria as a forward base for its influence, it has up to 4,100 soldiers in the country and has played a key role in helping Damascus restore control over territory lost over the course of the nearly decade long conflict.

Moscow is seemingly not willing to allow the continued US presence to proceed without cost and giving its forces the authority to ram US vehicles is a clear sign of intent. Back in February 2018 a large force of Russian mercenaries launched an assault against US positions near a major oilfield. They were repulsed, suffering heavy casualties, but the incident was more evidence of Moscow’s decision to push back against the US.

Considering Trump’s reticence to still have US forces in the country and with an election looming, one wonders what could happen if these tensions manifest in US soldiers being more seriously injured or killed. Would Trump double down, increase the US presence in the area and loosen the rules of engagement as a manifestation of strength? Or would any further incident be a trigger for him to order a more abrupt full withdrawal which could have a cascade effect on the power balance for a large chunk of the country?

Such is the unpredictability of the situation and how a single incident could metastasise into a series of events that could impact significantly on the balance of power in the country going forward. At a tactical level there is an obvious need to review and restart whatever deconfliction processes are currently in play in the area, at a political level Moscow and Washington have to decide whether this part of the world is a zone of cooperation or a zone of competition. Moscow appears to have made its mind up that the US interest is temporal and shallow and that it can be nudged into withdrawal by a show of more aggressive intent by Russian forces. However, Trump’s unpredictability makes this approach by no means guaranteed to succeed and instead unforeseen events could follow if the game of ‘chicken’ were to continue.

by : jamse danselow

Britain’s Search for a Global Role French Senate strong message to the Muslim Brotherhood

BENEFIT, the Kingdom’s innovator and leading company in Fintech and electronic financial transactions service, has announced its sponsorship of the “Innovation and Sustainable Technology Solutions Competition (GU - IST Solutions), hosted by Gulf University at its main campus.
This strategic sponsorship reflects BENEFIT’s active role in advancing technological innovation and fostering sustainable solutions to future challenges. It also seeks to empower Bahraini youth by enhancing their skills, capabilities, and competitiveness in innovation and solution development—contributing meaningfully to the broader goals of sustainable development across all sectors.
As part of BENEFIT’s active involvement in the competition, the company has announced that Hanan Abdulla Hasan, Senior Manager of Public Relations and Communication, will serve on the competition’s supervisory committee. Her upcoming participation reflects BENEFIT’s forward-looking commitment to championing academic and professional excellence.
Commenting on the occasion, Hanan Abdulla Hasan, Senior Manager of Public Relations and Communication at BENEFIT, said, “We are privileged to support this pioneering initiative, which aligns seamlessly with BENEFIT’s enduring commitment to fostering innovation and nurturing the potential of Bahrain’s youth. Our participation is rooted in a deep sense of social responsibility and a firm belief in the pivotal role of innovation in shaping a sustainable future. Through such platforms, we seek to empower the next generation with the knowledge, skills, and foresight required to develop impactful solutions that address future challenges, in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2030.”
Dr. Aseel Al Ayash Dean of the College of Engineering in Gulf University commented, “We extend our sincere gratitude to BENEFIT for their generous sponsorship and support of the Innovation and Sustainable Technology Solutions Competition. This contribution plays an instrumental role in helping us achieve the strategic goals of this initiative, namely, cultivating a culture of innovation and sustainability, encouraging efforts that address the imperatives of sustainable development, and enhancing the practical and professional capabilities of our students and participants.”
The event will bring together a diverse spectrum of participants, including secondary school students, university undergraduates, engineers, industry professionals, entrepreneurs, academic researchers, and subject matter experts representing a wide range of disciplines.
The competition seeks to inspire participants to develop and present innovative, sustainable technologies aimed at addressing pressing environmental, social, and economic challenges. It encourages the formulation of business models that integrate advanced technological solutions with core principles of sustainability. Moreover, it serves as a platform for emerging leaders, entrepreneurs, and innovators to contribute to the advancement of the Sustainable Development Goals, promote the ethos of responsible technology, and demonstrate its transformative potential across various sectors.
Attendees will have the opportunity to view a series of project presentations submitted by participants, covering diverse areas such as eco-friendly product design, smart and sustainable innovations, renewable energy technologies, water conservation and management, waste minimisation and recycling, green architectural solutions, and sustainable transportation systems. Outstanding projects will be formally recognised and awarded at the conclusion of the event.