Ramadan, Passover and Easter are coinciding his year so it is not surprising that tensions have been high around the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the Old City of Jerusalem. Last week hundreds of Palestinians were arrested by Israeli security forces in the mosque compound which borders on the Western Wall of the ancient Jewish Temple Mount.

 This rare overlap of holidays is happening in 2022 because, unlike the Christian calendar, which is determined by the course of the sun and is widely used in the western world, the Islamic calendar is aligned with the moon and the lunar year. Twelve months in the solar year last 365 days. The lunar year is only 354 days. Thus the Islamic cycle of holidays moves across the Western calendar over the course of a good three decades.

 But lunar calendars fall short of the solar calendar. Jews solved this problem by inserting an extra month of 30 days to the annual calendar, seven times in 19 years. This brought the Hebrew calendar close to the solar cycle.

 It's a complex explanation. But it is far easier to understand the tensions around Al-Aqsa nearly 55 years after Israel’s “six-day war” victory in June 1967.  The violence abated last week following the end of Passover and after Israel halted Jewish visits to the huge esplanade. But on Friday, 42 Palestinians were injured, bringing to nearly 300 the numbers of people injured during a two-week period of clashes at the site.

 Last year violence in Jerusalem between Israeli forces and Palestinian demonstrators escalated into an 11-day Gaza war. The compound housing the Al-Aqsa mosque is the third-holiest site in Islam (after Mecca and Medina), while it is the holiest place for Jews, who refer to it as the Temple Mount. The competing claims to the site have sparked numerous rounds of violence, starting in 1929, during the British Mandate.

 This year tens of thousands of visitors flocking to Jerusalem after coronavirus restrictions have been mostly lifted. Although Israel carried out an airstrike on April 18 following rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, the situation is unlikely to lead to a repeat of last year’s Gaza war.

 Israel’s 10-month coalition government is keen to avoid escalation; Hamas is not interested in another major confrontation; and there are mediators on the ground from the UN and elsewhere. But the wider global context is clearly the key, most notably Russia’s war on Ukraine and its consequences.

 The conflict in Ukraine has consumed the attention of the international community at all levels, especially with regard to ensuring the supply of essential foodstuffs and protecting the global economy from bankruptcy, inflation, and stagnation.

 Given the efforts to defeat Russia and prevent China from mounting a similar campaign to take over Taiwan, as well as the media’s preoccupation with Ukraine, it is not in the interest of the Palestinians to allow Israel to take advantage of the current situation and use it against them.

 Local and regional intervention is also an element of de-escalation of tensions. Last Wednesday Israeli MP Mansour Abbas of the United Arab List, a member of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s unwieldy coalition, met King Abdullah II of Jordan. The two discussed the tensions around Al-Aqsa and “ways to defend Jerusalem and Islamic and Christian holy sites.”

 “Jordan,” said the royal court, “has intensified its coordination with all regional and international partners to stop the escalation following the attacks on the blessed Al-Aqsa mosque. The repression of worshippers in Jerusalem, restricting the movement of Christians and impacting their religious celebrations are an unacceptable matter.”  The following day Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas also visited Amman and met with King Abdullah. Prior to that meeting, Abbas hosted Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service, in Ramallah.

 The context of the Jordanian role in Jerusalem is the 1994 peace treaty with Israel, in which the Hashemite monarch plays an important role as the custodian of the city’s Muslim and Christian holy sites. The current status quo on the Temple Mount, administered by Jordan’s Waqf, allows Jews to visit at certain times but not to pray, while Muslims are allowed greater access and prayer.

 Jordan is expected to request a significant increase in the number of unarmed Waqf guards at Al-Aqsa to allow it to prevent riots in the area and eliminate the need for the Israel police to enter. According to Mansour Abbas, Israel has agreed to 15 more guards, while Amman wants 200.

 Last week, Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh’s spoke out harshly against Israel saying, “I salute every Palestinian and every official in the Waqf who hurls stones at the Zionists”. Hamas's political chief Yahya Sinwar said on Saturday that the "big battle" for Al-Aqsa will begin after Ramadan if Israel "does not cease its aggression" at the mosque. 

 This coming week will mark both Eid al-Fitr and Israel’s Independence Day, potential flashpoints for further clashes. It’s a reminder that the world’s most intractable conflict is not going to disappear any time soon. Fingers crossed that this further coincidence doesn’t lead to uncontrollable escalation.
 

BY: IAN BLACK