Can the West stay united on Russian aggression?

Last Friday, June 2, marked 100 days since Vladimir Putin’s widely-condemned invasion of Ukraine. The preceding days marked two key international decisions. On May 30, European Union leaders agreed at a Brussels summit to reduce their common dependence on Russian oil in the wake of the Kremlin’s unprovoked aggression by the end of this turbulent and world-changing year. The EU-wide ban will affect oil that arrives by sea - around two-thirds of imports - but not pipeline oil, following opposition from Hungary.

And on June 1 the US announced that it was going to supply Ukraine with sophisticated artillery to resist the Russian onslaught. Unsurprisingly, Moscow then condemned Washington for adding fuel to the fire - which it of course ignited itself. The key question about these developments is: are they going to alter the course of Europe’s first war since the defeat of Adolf Hitler in 1945?

Both these decisions were made as Russian forces on the ground closed in on the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk, reflecting Putin’s to focus on the Donbas rather than seek to “de-Nazify” the government in Kyiv, the original declared goal of his “special military operation.”

EU leaders also discussed whether it was worth reaching out to Putin by phone following a debate over whether the calls undermine efforts to isolate the Russian president versus those who say contact is needed to find peace.

French president Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both explained their motives for their repeated calls to the Kremlin. Macron said strategic ambiguity is useful. He also said he will keep talking to Putin “on a regular basis” to keep diplomatic efforts alive, and that he speaks to the Russian leader “at the request” of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s impressive president.

Speaking in early May Macron, called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and urged the West not to "give in to the temptation of humiliation, nor the spirit of revenge". The following day, Italy's Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, speaking at the White House, said people in Europe wanted "to think about the possibility of bringing a ceasefire and starting again some credible negotiations".

Poland and Germany have also pledged to end pipeline imports, meaning a total of 90% of Russian oil will be blocked. The deal cut off a huge source of financing for Putin’s war machine. It is part of a sixth package of sanctions approved in Brussels, which all 27 member states have had to agree on. Russia currently supplies 27% of the EU's imported oil and 40% of its gas. The EU pays Russia around €400bn ($430bn, £341bn) a year in return.

So far, no sanctions on Russian gas exports to the EU have been put in place, although plans to open the new Nord Stream Two gas pipeline from Russia to Germany have been frozen. Oil prices climbed on news of the EU embargo, with Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, rising more than 70% over the past year, to $123 a barrel, its highest level since March.

EU members spent hours struggling to resolve their differences over the ban on Russian oil imports. Hungary, which imports 65% of its oil from Russia through pipelines, was its main opponent. Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, is the EU’s most Putin-friendly leader.

Zelensky, who dialled into the Brussels summit, urged EU members to stop their internal "quarrels," stating that they only helped Moscow. "All quarrels in Europe must end, internal disputes that only encourage Russia to put more and more pressure on you," he said via video-link. He again implored the West, as he has done repeatedly since the start of the conflict, to send more and better weapons so his country can repel the invaders. And he spoke of his concern that the West is not yet truly united in its support of Ukraine. Unfortunately he is right.

Recently one western official was quoted as saying that western leaders are divided between those who think they can work with Putin once the war is over, and those who think they cannot. The disputes come as some influential US voices, from Henry Kissinger to the New York Times, have urged Ukraine to realise it may have to lose territory to Putin, as it had to do when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. By contrast, Britain, Poland and the Baltic states have all called for Russia’s unambiguous defeat.

President Joe Biden's insistence that US weapons only be used to hit Russian targets inside Ukraine caused some to wonder why the West seeks to place limits on Ukraine's war effort while Russia observes no limits at all. "There's a kind of calibration going on," as one political analyst told the BBC. "As though we're saying 'we want the Ukrainians to win but not to win too much'".

Autocratic Russia’s invasion of democratic Ukraine is a globally transformative event: the West must go on supporting Kyiv unreservedly until Putin, a 21st century Stalin, acknowledges that the war is over. But it is getting much harder to predict what the next 100 days will bring.