In a world swinging between chaos and order, the political scene in the United States during Donald Trump's second term (2025) emerges as a pivotal stage for redefining global balances.  
The rise of what could be called the "Modern Deep State," combining new economic and technological elites with nationalist political forces, reveals an implicit competition with the "Classical Deep State," represented by traditional security and military institutions.  

This conflict is evident in Trump's aggressive economic policies aimed at restructuring the global economic system, and in his approach to hot military zones, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite Trump's promises to end this war "within 24 hours," the reality exposes geopolitical and economic complexities beyond slogans, with the interests of great powers intertwined with global economic challenges.  

In the Middle East, tensions escalate over hot issues threatening to redraw the region’s map— notably the Kurdish question, which emerges as a potential factor for redefining borders amid demands for self-determination, as weak states like Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria face internal challenges and external pressures. Meanwhile, Gaza remains a flashpoint, fueling regional conflicts and boosting Iran's tools like Hezbollah and resistance movements, thereby increasing tensions with the US and its allies. The situation is further complicated by Turkey’s rising confrontation with American interests in the region, especially in Syria and Iraq, where Ankara’s regional ambitions conflict with Washington’s strategies, hinting at further fractures in geopolitical balances.  

These wars are expected to continue negatively impacting the global economy through rising energy prices, increased inflation, and disrupted supply chains. At the same time, the modern deep state exploits these crises to enhance American influence through new economic tools such as tariffs and alternative trade alliances. In this context, the White House becomes a battleground between two visions: reestablishing American dominance by dismantling the global liberal order, or gradually retreating in the face of rising powers like China and Russia.  

In the first hundred days of Donald Trump’s second term, which began on January 20, 2025, the US and the world experienced unprecedented political and economic transformations characterized by bold, controversial decisions, intense nationalist rhetoric under the slogan "America First," and erratic relations with allies and adversaries alike. Trump’s celebratory speech on April 29, 2025, at a large rally in Macomb County, Michigan, marking the first hundred days, was filled with exaggerated optimism but failed to conceal deep cracks in the global economic system caused by his aggressive trade policies.  

Since taking office, Trump announced the imposition of a comprehensive 10% tariff on all American imports starting April 5, 2025, with additional tariffs reaching 145% on China and varying rates on 57 other countries — using his powers under the International Economic Emergency Act of 1977.  

This policy, dubbed the "Day of Liberation" during an event at the White House on April 2, 2025, sparked chaos in global markets, with US stock indexes plunging sharply—Dow Jones nearly 4%, S&P 500 around 5%, Nasdaq 6% in one day—worst since March 2020. These tariffs caused global markets to lose more than $10 trillion within weeks, according to Bloomberg estimates.  

In his speech in Michigan, Trump claimed these tariffs would be a "lifeline for the economy," asserting they would end "job theft" by China, which he accused of destroying American industry. Yet, polls tell a different story: a Reuters/Ipsos survey ending April 27, 2025, showed 53% of Americans oppose Trump’s performance, with only 36% supporting his economic management—his lowest approval in this term. An Economist/Yugov poll in April 2025 indicated that 51% of Americans believe the economy is deteriorating, and 55% expect inflation to rise over the next six months.

Globally, these tariffs prompted reciprocal measures: China imposed 125% tariffs on US imports, Canada announced a 25% tariff on non-USMCA compliant vehicles, and the European Union also indicated readiness to respond. Tensions led the IMF to cut its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in 2024, warning that a "full-scale trade war" could significantly slow global growth.  

Trump pledged during his campaign to end the Russia-Ukraine war "within 24 hours," but by Michigan, he retracted that promise, saying negotiations are ongoing without a clear timeline. On April 29, 2025, he stated, "Both sides want peace," but criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, accusing him of prolonging the war through "stubborn statements." Conversely, Trump hinted that Russian President Vladimir Putin "is willing to negotiate," raising fears he might make concessions to Russia, such as recognizing Crimea’s annexation or occupied territories since 2022. 

 

This sharp decline in popularity, especially among key voting bases such as uneducated whites (a 10-point decrease) and those under 30 years old (a 13-point decrease), highlights the challenges Trump faces in maintaining public support.

The polarized political landscape, with 90% of Democrats opposing him and only 80% of Republicans supporting him (down from near-universal support in his first term), further complicates his ability to unify the nation. As Trump continues to confront these challenges, the erosion of his popularity indicates a critical turning point for his administration, with potential repercussions for the 2026 midterm elections and the overall direction of American politics.

What is certain is that the coming years will witness an escalation in the competition for world leadership—between a superpower redefining its role and rising powers exploiting every opportunity to fill the vacuum left behind.

Dr. Mahmoud Abbas