Syria’s Lifeline Under Threat

Syria’s northern borders may remain open to lifesaving aid, but the recent events at the UN that allowed this to happen demonstrate how the window for future assistance is narrowing and how a humanitarian imperative has become politicised with risk to millions.

The decision to allow the UN to deliver aid across a country’s border without that country’s permission was always a controversial one. Yet the face that the Government in Damascus had lost control of so many of its borders and that a vast number of Syrians did not live under its sovereignty anymore made the decision critically important.

Since 2014 the mandate given by the UN Security Council has allowed aid to a population of some 2.4 million Syrians, equivalent to more than the entire population of Slovenia. Russia’s use of the veto, now such a regular tactic when it comes to Syria that it no longer surprises people, has meant that a year long renewal is likely to become a six-month one in coming days. This introduces more uncertainty and difficulties for a highly vulnerable population. America’s ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, accusing Russia of putting its “own political interests above the humanitarian needs of the Syrian people….Tragically people will die because of this vote,” she told the chamber.

In Northwest Syria, 93 per cent of the population are dependent on humanitarian assistance. Decisions made now will be seen in the reductions in food supplies and the corresponding spikes in malnutrition and hunger. Slowly restricting aid has an insidious effect on a population comprising of vast numbers who are already displaced from their homes. Its worst effects are often seen in winter when the rains and snow make living for those in tents almost intolerable.

Many children, the UN point out, have lived in tents all their lives. Temporary accommodation designed for brief interregnums are not supposed to be families’ homes for lives. They are by the very nature in-between spaces but the geopolitics of the world and the region have meant that for tens of thousands of people they can’t leave the country nor can they countenance a return to parts of the country under government control.

Let’s not forget why. At the end of June the U.N. human rights office said that 306,887 civilians had been killed in Syria during the conflict since March 2011, or about 1.5 % of its pre-war population, in what it said was the highest estimate yet. This is an incredible death toll, an average of 18 children a day, and one that we should constantly remind ourselves explains the huge flight of people from their homes in Syria in the early years of the war.

It is also worth reminding those whose attention has been refocused onto Ukraine, or Afghanistan or the looming hunger crisis in the Horn of Africa, that the conflict in Syria is frozen rather than resolved. The fault lines within a civil war that has regional and global dimensions, have not disappeared nor has there been a successful peace process or mechanism to bring this devastating chapter of Syria’s history to an end.

The Government in Damascus still wants to restore its sovereignty over the entire country and a lot of armed groups ranging in size, organisation and capacity wish for something entirely different. The ability for food, medicine and shelter supplies to get to those who need it in opposition-controlled areas undermines the Regime’s attempts to take back control. We know this as the history of the conflict has been replete with instances of siege warfare or the denial of life saving aid or neutral actors by Damascus as a matter of choice.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has meant that tensions at the UN over Syria have just gotten worse. However, UN watchers will note with interest that China abstained over the Resolution led by Norway and Ireland that Russia vetoed leading some to hope that Russia could be isolated on this issue. Presuming that a green light will be given to some extension of the cross-border mandate in the coming days, which would essential kicking the can down the road for future fights yet to come, it is crucial that a host of actors move quickly to ensure that winterisation materials and enough aid can get into the country to hedge against the uncertainty that is guaranteed to come.