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The Syria Gambit

The news that Russian General Aleksandr Dvornikov was being placed in command of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine would have sent a chill through many Syrians. It was Dvornikov who led the 2015 effort to reinforce Damascus and thus turn a tide that until then seemed unstoppable. Russian airpower blasted away the then balance of power and allowed a revitalised Assad to win back Aleppo and other strategic parts of the country.
Yet whilst eyes focus on Ukraine, Syria remains geopolitically fragmented and war-torn with millions still eking a living outside the country or dependent on humanitarian aid. The 11th anniversary of the conflict passed in March with barely a murmur. As acts of savagery emerge on the outskirts of Kiev, Syrians who’ve endured similar trials and tribulations must wonder if their arc of justice will come sooner, later or never at all because of events in the east of Europe.
Nowhere across the globe is immune from the reverberations of the Ukraine crisis, but some will feel it more than others. Some countries will be hit by the spike in food or fuel prices, others with see their defence supply chains and tradition power politics put into flux by Western-led attempts to build the harshest sanctions ever placed on a country.
Syria is a combination of all of these. Barely weeks into events it emerged that Russia had drawn up a list of 40,000 Syrians to deploy in Ukraine to aid its invasion of the country according to a UK-based activist group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) Syrian fighters experience of the brutal nature of urban warfare could make them an asset in cities in Ukraine that have stalled the Russian advance, goes the logic. Another logic says that with Russia having experienced, in their own words, “significant losses” they need all the help they can get.
Yet it is one thing to leverage the experience of Russian generals and Syrian fighters to try and gain advantage in Ukraine, it is another thing not to expect that to alter the balance of forces in Syria itself. Israel struck military positions inside Syria this week for reportedly the eighth time this year, but in a rare tactic did so in broad daylight. Meanwhile in the east on the banks of the Euphrates indirect fire led to light injuries to US troops in the areas and a subsequent airstrike against Iranian backed militias on the other side of the river.
It's hard to read too much into incidents that are not exceptional within the ebb and flow of Syria’s current violence, but fault lines can stay relatively dormant for years or they can product devastating earthquakes. The fact that Russia and the US, countries trying to re-establish the rules of this new Cold War, are both present in the country with proxies and armed allies makes for an obvious dangerous stew. However, Russia’s aims in Syria have always been focused on buttressing Damascus, whilst the US has until now been focused on anti-ISIS operations. Could that change?
Such is the debt that Assad owes to Putin that there can be little realistic chance of the Syrian leader refusing requests for support from Moscow, whether in the diplomatic arena or through the transfer of fighters. There does remains the question though as to whether Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Syria’s deployment of reinforcements will offer the opportunity for anti-Assad forces, perhaps revitalised by outside resource to change dynamics on the ground.
Turkey is a major player inside the country and the region but is trying to offer good offices to the Ukraine crisis and is unlikely to change tact significantly. Israel may feel less restricted in attacking targets in Syria with Russia less invested in the day to day there. However, in essence the critical question is whether the US feels it can and should squeeze Russia in Syria? More arms and training to the SDF in the northeast could see them make a push south for lines across the Euphrates or conduct ‘hit and run’ attacks to force a response from Damascus.
In the northwest of the country armed actors may seize what they see as an opportunity regardless of any change in US policy. Shelling near Idlib and Russian airstrikes has been reported in the last few days and should be considered a useful barometer as to how much Ukraine has changed the situation in Syria and whether anti-Damascus actors in the country consider it the opportune time to make a tactical or strategic gambit.
BU: James Denselow
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BENEFIT Sponsors BuildHer...
- April 23, 2025
BENEFIT, the Kingdom’s innovator and leading company in Fintech and electronic financial transactions service, has sponsored the BuildHer CityHack 2025 Hackathon, a two-day event spearheaded by the College of Engineering and Technology at the Royal University for Women (RUW).
Aimed at secondary school students, the event brought together a distinguished group of academic professionals and technology experts to mentor and inspire young participants.
More than 100 high school students from across the Kingdom of Bahrain took part in the hackathon, which featured an intensive programme of training workshops and hands-on sessions. These activities were tailored to enhance participants’ critical thinking, collaborative problem-solving, and team-building capabilities, while also encouraging the development of practical and sustainable solutions to contemporary challenges using modern technological tools.
BENEFIT’s Chief Executive Mr. Abdulwahed AlJanahi, commented: “Our support for this educational hackathon reflects our long-term strategic vision to nurture the talents of emerging national youth and empower the next generation of accomplished female leaders in technology. By fostering creativity and innovation, we aim to contribute meaningfully to Bahrain’s comprehensive development goals and align with the aspirations outlined in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030—an ambition in which BENEFIT plays a central role.”
Professor Riyadh Yousif Hamzah, President of the Royal University for Women, commented: “This initiative reflects our commitment to advancing women in STEM fields. We're cultivating a generation of creative, solution-driven female leaders who will drive national development. Our partnership with BENEFIT exemplifies the powerful synergy between academia and private sector in supporting educational innovation.”
Hanan Abdulla Hasan, Senior Manager, PR & Communication at BENEFIT, said: “We are honoured to collaborate with RUW in supporting this remarkable technology-focused event. It highlights our commitment to social responsibility, and our ongoing efforts to enhance the digital and innovation capabilities of young Bahraini women and foster their ability to harness technological tools in the service of a smarter, more sustainable future.”
For his part, Dr. Humam ElAgha, Acting Dean of the College of Engineering and Technology at the University, said: “BuildHer CityHack 2025 embodies our hands-on approach to education. By tackling real-world problems through creative thinking and sustainable solutions, we're preparing women to thrive in the knowledge economy – a cornerstone of the University's vision.”
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