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Will Putin dare to invade Ukraine?

It has become one of the most alarming international questions of 2021 as the end of this turbulent year approaches: will Vladimir Putin decide to invade Ukraine – or at least to intervene again militarily in Russia’s neighbour, which for decades was part of the Soviet Union? The Kremlin, naturally, denies that.
Significant events have taken place in recent months: one was the massing of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine in April. Russia returned some, but not all, of its troops to their bases in May after Putin secured a Geneva summit with President Joe Biden. In July however, Putin published a lengthy account on the Kremlin website, calling Russians and Ukrainians “one nation” and labelling Kyiv’s leaders as running an “anti-Russian project.”
Another was the difficult video call Biden made to Putin in early December. And another key move was last week’s warning from the EU and Nato and the UK that if the Russian president went ahead with his perceived threat there would be “unprecedented measures with serious consequences.”
Despite their overall denial, officials in Moscow are reflecting the Kremlin’s sabre-rattling view. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, frighteningly compared the mounting tensions over Ukraine to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 – at the peak of the Cold War – and the dangers it entailed.
Additional strategic factors are the damage done to America’s global reputation by this summer’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover; another is the increasing closeness between Moscow and Beijing in confronting the West and Nato and accusing them of using the “excuse” of respecting human rights.
Putin agreed with President Xi Jinping in a video call last Wednesday that Russia and China should stand firm in rejecting Western interference and defending each other’s security interests. Their conversation, a week after Putin spoke to Biden in a similar format, emphasized how shared hostility to the West is bringing the two autocracies closer together.
And the visit to Moscow by the assistant US secretary of state included discussion of Russian demands that Ukraine will not be invited to join Nato. Putin has also insisted on securing guarantees that the Atlantic alliance will not seek to station offensive weapons in Ukraine. Nato has made it clear that Russia has no right to veto membership for eastern European countries. Still, observers rightly point out that an attack on member of the alliance is considered an attack on all. And they add of course that Russia already annexed Crimea in 2014.
Putin’s shifting demands are in effect intended to return Nato forces to where they were stationed in 1997, before an expansion which included much of eastern Europe, including Poland, the former Soviet countries of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Balkan countries.
US intelligence officials say Russia has moved 70,000 troops towards Ukraine’s border and is preparing for a possible invasion early next year. Moscow officially denies it has any plans to attack and rejects Western concerns as part of a smear campaign. Ukrainian authorities have said Moscow could be planning an offensive at the end of January, although US officials say it is not yet clear whether Putin has yet made a decision. Experts think he wants to create positions of power, opportunities and exploit them.
In 2015, following Putin’s annexation of Crimea, France and Germany brought Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table and brokered a peace agreement that helped end large-scale hostilities in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region since the overthrow of the pro-Moscow president in 2014.
Paris and Berlin are adopting similar attitudes to the current crisis, both arguing that the EU and Nato should engage with Moscow. But Olaf Scholz, the new German chancellor who has replaced Angela Merkel, warned that more talks “must not be misunderstood as a new German ‘Ostpolitik’,” referring to West German Chancellor Willy Brandt’s policy of détente towards the communist Eastern bloc in the early 1970s. There “can only be a European Ostpolitik in a united Europe” that is based on principles of international law and order that Russia committed itself to but violated with the annexation of Crimea, as Scholz said.
Another German contribution to increasing pressure on Moscow is likely to be the new government’s attitude to the Nord Stream 2 project, the pipeline, not yet operating, that is intended to supply gas to Germany via the Baltic sea. Merkel was reluctant to weaponize that but Scholz seems inclined to respond differently in order to improve relations with EU and Nato allies. His foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has made clear if there is any further Russian escalation then "this gas pipeline could not come into service". Another significant economic tool could be threatening to disconnect Russia's banking system from the international Swift payment system, though that has always been seen very much as a last resort.
Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, came up with a good line about how to deal with this escalating crisis: “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.” Sensible advice in an increasingly scary situation in these uncertain times!
BY: IAN BLACK
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BENEFIT AGM approves 10%...
- March 27, 2025
BENEFIT, the Kingdom’s innovator and leading company in Fintech and electronic financial transactions service, held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) at the company’s headquarters in the Seef District.
During the meeting, shareholders approved all items listed on the agenda, including the ratification of the minutes of the previous AGM held on 26 March 2024. The session reviewed and approved the Board’s Annual Report on the company’s activities and financial performance for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2024, and the shareholders expressed their satisfaction with the company’s operational and financial results during the reporting period.
The meeting also reviewed the Independent External Auditor’s Report on the company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024. Subsequently, the shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the fiscal year. Based on the Board’s recommendation, the shareholders approved the distribution of a cash dividend equivalent to 10% of the paid-up share capital.
Furthermore, the shareholders endorsed the allocation of a total amount of BD 172,500 as remuneration to the members of the Board for the year ended 31 December 2024, subject to prior clearance by related authorities.
The extension of the current composition of the Board was approved, which includes ten members and one CBB observer, for a further six-month term, expiring in September 2025, pending no objection from the CBB.
The meeting reviewed and approved the Corporate Governance Report for 2024, which affirmed the company’s full compliance with the corporate governance directives issued by the CBB and other applicable regulatory frameworks. The AGM absolved the Board Members of liability for any of their actions during the year ending on 31st December 2024, in accordance with the Commercial Companies Law.
In alignment with regulatory requirements, the session approved the reappointment of Ernst & Young (EY) as the company’s External Auditors for the fiscal year 2025, covering both the parent company and its subsidiaries—Sinnad and Bahrain FinTech Bay. The Board was authorised to determine the external auditors’ professional fees, subject to approval from the CBB, and the meeting concluded with a discussion of any additional issues as per Article (207) of the Commercial Companies Law.
Speaking on the company’s performance, Mr. Mohamed Al Bastaki, Chairman BENEFIT , stated: “In terms of the financial results for 2024, I am pleased to say that the year gone by has also been proved to be a success in delivering tangible results. Growth rate for 2024 was 19 per cent. Revenue for the year was BD 17 M (US$ 45.3 Million) and net profit was 2 Million ($ 5.3 Million).
Mr. Al Bastaki also announced that the Board had formally adopted a new three-year strategic roadmap to commence in 2025. The strategy encompasses a phased international expansion, optimisation of internal operations, enhanced revenue diversification, long-term sustainability initiatives, and the advancement of innovation and digital transformation initiatives across all service lines.
“I extend my sincere appreciation to the CBB for its continued support of BENEFIT and its pivotal role in fostering a stable and progressive regulatory environment for the Kingdom’s banking and financial sector—an environment that has significantly reinforced Bahrain’s standing as a leading financial hub in the region,” said Mr. Al Bastaki. “I would also like to thank our partner banks and valued customers for their trust, and our shareholders for their ongoing encouragement. The achievements of 2024 set a strong precedent, and I am confident they will serve as a foundation for yet another successful and impactful year ahead.”
Chief Executive of BENEFIT; Mr. Abdulwahed AlJanahi commented, “The year 2024 represented another pivotal chapter in BENEFIT ’s evolution. We achieved substantial progress in advancing our digital strategy across multiple sectors, while reinforcing our long-term commitment to the development of Bahrain’s financial services and payments landscape. Throughout the year, we remained firmly aligned with our objective of delivering measurable value to our shareholders, strategic partners, and customers. At the same time, we continued to play an active role in enabling Bahrain’s digital economy by introducing innovative solutions and service enhancements that directly address market needs and future opportunities.”
Mr. AlJanahi affirmed that BENEFIT has successfully developed a robust and well-integrated payment network that connects individuals and businesses across Bahrain, accelerating the adoption of emerging technologies in the banking and financial services sector and reinforcing Bahrain’s position as a growing fintech hub, and added, “Our achievements of the past year reflect a long-term vision to establish a resilient electronic payment infrastructure that supports the Kingdom’s digital economy. Key developments in 2024 included the implementation of central authentication for open banking via BENEFIT Pay”
Mr. AlJanahi concluded by thanking the Board for its strategic direction, the company’s staff for their continued dedication, and the Central Bank of Bahrain, member banks, and shareholders for their valuable partnership and confidence in the company’s long-term vision.
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