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Israel on the Edge: Study of Striking Nuclear Iran Between Feasibility and Risks
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Israeli air maneuvers reveal increasing readiness to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of dangerous regional escalation that could lead to a full-scale war in the Middle East
Amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, press reports have revealed that the Israeli Air Force conducted extensive air maneuvers over the Mediterranean Sea two years ago.
These exercises, publicly announced by the Israeli Defense Forces, aimed to simulate a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking widespread debate about the feasibility and consequences of such military action.
According to The New York Times, these maneuvers were not just a show of force against Iran, but also a message to President Joe Biden's administration. Israel demonstrated its readiness to act unilaterally, despite recognizing that the chances of success would be much higher with U.S. participation, especially given Washington's arsenal of "bunker-buster missiles."
However, doubts linger about Israel's ability to inflict significant damage on Iranian nuclear facilities alone. In private interviews, top Israeli officials acknowledged major challenges to the success of such an operation. This has led Pentagon officials to question whether Israel is actually preparing for a unilateral strike, particularly under current circumstances that may not recur.
On the other hand, President Biden warned Israel against striking Iranian nuclear or energy sites, emphasizing that any response should be "proportionate" to Iran's recent attack on Israel. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also stressed to his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, Washington's desire to avoid retaliatory steps that could lead to new escalation by Iran.
Estimates suggest that Israel might focus its initial response on targeting Iranian military bases and intelligence sites, postponing strikes on nuclear facilities to a later stage if Iran escalates its counterattacks. Nevertheless, voices within Israel, and even in the United States, are increasingly calling for seizing the current opportunity to delay Iran's nuclear capability for years.
In this context, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote, calling for action now "to destroy Iran's nuclear program, central energy facilities, and fatally paralyze this terrorist regime." This hardline stance has elicited mixed reactions, with U.S. officials viewing such strikes as potentially ineffective and possibly pushing the region towards full-scale war.
The issue of striking Iran has become central in U.S. election campaigns, with former President Donald Trump claiming that Israel should "strike the nuclear [facilities] first and then worry about the rest later," a approach that contradicts his policy when in the White House.
This heated debate raises fundamental questions about Israel's actual ability to hinder Iran's nuclear program, and whether the result would merely push this program into greater secrecy and underground depth. It also raises serious questions about the possibility that an Israeli strike could push the Iranian leadership to make a decisive decision to race towards possessing a nuclear bomb, a red line Iran has not crossed for nearly a quarter of a century.
Levant-Agencies
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