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The Reality of the Current International Position Towards the Mullahs’ Regime
Amid the rapid political transformations on the international stage, the mullahs' regime in Iran remains a subject of extensive debate, with various narratives regarding the nature of the international stance towards it. However, the undeniable truth is that this regime, led by Ali Khamenei, is diligently striving to maintain its existence and the dominance of the "Wilayat al-Faqih" system at any cost, without making significant concessions that might endanger its existence. Khamenei's strategy is clear: to procrastinate, buy time, and play diplomatic games to ensure the continuity of his rule, far from any genuine intention of opening up or abandoning his ambitions.
As evidenced by his policies, Khamenei aims to preserve the regime as a cohesive entity based on the dominance of "Wilayat al-Faqih," which is the backbone of his religious and political authority. This goal goes beyond mere personal survival; he seeks to ensure the continuity of the theocratic model he leads, perceiving it as a tool for controlling the Iranian people and exporting his influence in the region. In this context, it is unimaginable that Khamenei would allow any political or social breakthrough that could weaken his iron grip on a suffering Iranian society plagued by worsening political and economic suffocation.
Contrary to what some might expect, Khamenei will not follow a path similar to that of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya when he abandoned his nuclear program in exchange for international promises that ultimately did not save his regime. Khamenei is well aware that completely abandoning his nuclear program or making major concessions would cost him a strategic leverage and perhaps expose his regime to collapse. Instead, the regime relies on a policy of "duplication," playing a double game that combines softened diplomatic statements with covert maneuvers to buy time. This strategy aims to prolong the crisis while keeping the international community in a state of hesitation and waiting.
Behind the scenes, the regime operates by making unrealistic promises and commitments, whether in nuclear negotiations or in dealing with international sanctions. These promises are nothing but tactical tools to absorb external pressures and avoid direct confrontation, while continuing to enhance its military and security capabilities both internally and externally. While the regime shows superficial readiness for dialogue, it intensifies the suppression of popular protests, tightens its grip on the opposition, and continues to support its proxies in the region, from Hezbollah to the Houthis, to maintain its regional influence.
The international position towards this regime seems fluctuating, as Western countries oscillate between imposing sanctions and attempting to resume negotiations. However, this fluctuation serves Khamenei's interests, who exploits international divisions to his advantage. The United States, for example, adopts a firm approach at times but retracts at other times under pressure from European allies who prefer diplomatic solutions. This situation grants the regime breathing space, prolonging its survival without any significant change in its behavior.
In reality, the continuation of this approach by the regime reflects Khamenei's conviction that time is his greatest ally. He bets that internal and external pressures may ease over time or that he may achieve technological breakthroughs that strengthen his position; however, this gamble may be a double-edged sword, as the Iranian people, suffering from poverty and oppression, may not remain patient for long, especially in light of a deep-rooted historical resistance and organized powerful movements, alongside the presence of internal organizations like the Resistance Units that have hurt the regime and threaten its existence. The international community may also lose patience if the Iranian regime continues to defy international laws.
In conclusion, it can be said that the current international position towards the mullahs' regime is characterized by hesitation and ambiguity, while Khamenei continues his policy of buying time and avoiding any real concessions. Yet, the essential question remains: How long can this regime withstand increasing internal and external pressures without collapsing under the weight of its internal contradictions and the capabilities of the Iranian resistance?
Musa Al-Maani / Former Jordanian Minister
